Video & highlights: Election 2024 — How to use poll data to accurately inform the public

6 tips for your reporting from polling experts

Opinion polls are a staple of election-year reporting, and experts say that reporters should expect to have to wade through at least 1,500 national, state and local polls in this coming election season. But which ones should reporters trust?

On Jan. 26, journalists and polling experts joined the National Press Club Journalism Institute to provide background in polling literacy and advice for how to cover polls in the 2024 election season.

Check the reliability and reputation of the pollster. ABC News’ 538 recently updated its pollster ratings database that analyzes the historical track record and methodological transparency of each polling firm’s polls.

A good poll will be transparent about how it gathered its data, said Poynter senior correspondent Louis Jacobson. It should explain:

whether it was conducted online, through calls to land lines, mobile phones, or a mix
the timing of the poll
the number of people polled
the questions asked
whether registered or likely voters were surveyed
who funded the poll

Understand each poll’s margin of error. Polls reflect how a campaign is unfolding and the mood of the electorate, but they aren’t predictions or always precise, said Courtney Kennedy, Pew Research Center’s vice president of methods and innovation. Even if a poll says its margin of error is plus or minus three, the real number may be closer to seven, according to this New York Times story.

Be wary of using a campaign’s internal polls, especially in state and local elections where there are fewer polls in comparison to national polls, said Erin Covey, U.S. House analyst for the Cook Political Report. Campaigns like to cherry-pick and leak polls and “can be really sneaky about the way they’re pitching these polls,” she said.

Pay attention to the demographic makeup of the polls in 2024. Non-White voters now make up 25 percent of the American electorate, said Jane Junn, professor of political science at the University of Southern California. How well a poll captured the mood of minority voters will matter particularly in swing states, she said. For example, polling data showed that Asian American voters played a key role in helping Democrats win in Georgia. “Making that analytical distinction” in the demographics of polls matters, she said.

Explain why you are using a particular poll in your reporting. “Media needs to be more responsible about explaining why we use certain pollsters, why we trust certain pollsters, and how polling works within stories themselves,” said Covey.

For more tips on political polling, watch the recording:

Additional resources

About the speakers

Erin Covey will lead CPR’s coverage of the US House of Representatives alongside veteran House analyst and Senior Editor, David Wasserman. Covey comes to The Cook Political Report from Inside Elections where she served as a reporter and analyst. She has also worked at National Journal, where she reported on campaigns and national politics as a writer and editor of Hotline’s Wake-Up Call and Hotline’s Latest Edition, and worked as a news assistant for NPR’s Morning Edition and Weekend Edition.

Louis Jacobson has decades of experience covering politics, policy, Congress, and lobbying. Before he joined PolitiFact, he served as deputy editor of Roll Call and staff correspondent at National Journal magazine. He is senior author of the 2016-2024 editions of The Almanac of American Politics and contributed to the 2000 and 2004 editions of the Almanac. Since 2004, Jacobson has been writing a column on politics in the states, which has run in Roll Call, Stateline.org, Governing, and the Cook Political Report.

Jane Junn is professor of political science at the University of Southern California. She is the author of five books on political participation and public opinion in the United States. Her most recent book The Politics of Belonging: Race, Immigration, and Public Opinion (with Natalie Masuoka), was published in 2013 by the University of Chicago Press.

Courtney Kennedy is vice President of methods and innovation at Pew Research Center. Her team is responsible for the design of the Center’s U.S. surveys and maintenance of the American Trends Panel. Kennedy conducts experimental research to improve the accuracy of public opinion polls. Her research focuses on nonresponse, weighting, modes of administration and sampling frames. Her work has been published in Public Opinion Quarterly, the Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology and the Journal of Official Statistics. She has served as a co-author on five American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) task force reports, including chairing the committee that evaluated polling in the 2016 presidential election.

About the National Press Club Journalism Institute

The National Press Club Journalism Institute promotes an engaged global citizenry through an independent and free press, and equips journalists with skills and standards to inform the public in ways that inspire a more representative democracy. As the non-profit affiliate of the National Press Club, the Institute powers journalism in the public interest.

The Institute depends on grants, foundation funds, and contributions from individuals like you. Your donation today allows the Institute to offer the majority of its programming at no cost.